In this 26 March 2026 published video, host Michelle Makori, President & Editor-in-Chief, Miles Franklin Media, talks with Edward Dowd, Founder of Phinance Technologies.
Markets may be watching the wrong risk. While headlines focus on the Iran war and geopolitics, Dowd warns the real breakdown is already underway beneath the surface of the U.S. economy. From a weakening housing market to a bursting AI bubble and a frozen private credit system, Dowd argues that the conditions for a major downturn were already in place – before the war even began.
He explains why any relief rally driven by geopolitical optimism could be a selling opportunity, why a 40-50 percent market crash remains on the table, and how structural risks in housing, credit, and global growth are converging. Dowd also shares his outlook on China’s slowing economy, the Federal Reserve’s limited options, and why he believes gold remains in a long-term bull market – even after recent volatility.
In this episode of The Real Story with Michelle Makori:
- Why the real economic breakdown has already started
- Housing market weakness and why prices may need to fall
- The AI bubble and signs it may already be cracking
- Private credit stress and why it’s the “canary in the coal mine”
- Why a relief rally could be the last chance to exit
- Dowd’s outlook for a 40–50 percent market correction
- China’s economic slowdown and global implications
- Gold’s long-term trajectory and why it could reach $10,000
00:00 Coming up
01:25 Introduction
02:55 Core thesis: recession already in motion
04:55 Housing market breakdown begins
10:25 Why prices must fall
14:55 Private credit freeze warning
18:55 Fed trapped by inflation and war
22:25 AI bubble showing cracks
32:55 Recession outlook and deflation risk
37:25 40-50 percent market crash scenario
41:55 Iran war vs structural risks
45:25 Why relief rallies are selling opportunities
49:25 China’s economic slowdown
55:25 Gold outlook and $10K target
59:25 Positioning
